A review on statistical models for identifying climate contributions to crop yields   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

Wenjiao Shi  Fulu Tao  Zhao Zhang 《地理学报(英文版)》2013,23(3):567-576

Statistical models using historical data on crop yields and weather to calibrate relatively simple regression equations have been widely and extensively applied in previous studies, and have provided a common alternative to process-based models, which require extensive input data on cultivar, management, and soil conditions. However, very few studies had been conducted to review systematically the previous statistical models for indentifying climate contributions to crop yields. This paper introduces three main statistical methods, i.e., time-series model, cross-section model and panel model, which have been used to identify such issues in the field of agrometeorology. Generally, research spatial scale could be categorized into two types using statistical models, including site scale and regional scale (e.g. global scale, national scale, provincial scale and county scale). Four issues exist in identifying response sensitivity of crop yields to climate change by statistical models. The issues include the extent of spatial and temporal scale, non-climatic trend removal, colinearity existing in climate variables and non-consideration of adaptations. Respective resolutions for the above four issues have been put forward in the section of perspective on the future of statistical models finally.  相似文献   

An exploratory analysis of benthic macroinvertebrates as indicators of the ecological status of the Upper Yellow and Yangtze Rivers     

Baozhu Pan  Zhaoyin Wang  Zhiwei Li  Guo-an Yu  Mengzhen Xu  Na Zhao  Gary Brierley 《地理学报(英文版)》2013,23(5):871-882

This study presents findings of the first systematic analysis of aquatic biotic assemblages in the source region of the Yellow and Yangtze Rivers. It provides an initial basis with which to select representative organisms as indicators to assess the aquatic ecological status of rivers in this region. Macroinvertebrates are considered to be good indicators of long-term environmental changes due to their restricted range and persistence over time. Field investigations of macroinvertebrates were conducted in August 2009 in the source region of the Yellow River, and in July 2010 in the source region of the Yangtze River. Altogether 68 taxa of macroinvertebrates belonging to 29 families and 59 genera were identified. Among them were 8 annelids, 5 mollusks, 54 arthropods and 1 other animal. In the source region of the Yellow River, taxa number, density and biomass of macroinvertebrates were 50, 329 individuals m2 and 0.3966 g dry weight m2, respectively. Equivalent figures for the source region of the Yangtze River were 29, 59 individuals m2 and 0.0307 g dry weight m-2. The lower benthic animal resources in the source region of the Yangtze River are ascribed to higher altitude, higher sediment concentration and wetland degradation. Preliminary findings of this exploratory study indicate that hydroelectric power stations had a weak impact on benthic dwellers but wetland degradation caused by a series of human activities had a catastrophic impact on survival of macroinvertebrates. Ecological protection measures such as conservative grazing and vegetation management are required to minimize grassland degradation and desertification, and reduce soil erosion rate and river sediment discharge.  相似文献   

Biogeography and Genetic Diversity of Pearl Millet (Pennisetum glaucum) from Sahelian Africa     

Laura R. Lewis 《The Professional geographer》2013,65(3):377-394

Sahelian Africa makes up the native range of pearl millet and the impact of domestication on the genetic diversity of wild, intermediate, and cultivated subspecies is still poorly understood. Wild populations are known to spontaneously germinate throughout this range and hybridize with cultivated material. To investigate genetic structure, populations of pearl millet from several African countries were analyzed at the morphological and molecular levels for diversity. Results demonstrate how little differentiation there is between subspecies and populations. It appears that pearl millet throughout the Sahel remains a metapopulation with large hybrid zones. These results have important implications for conservation of pearl millet.  相似文献   

INTRINSIC THRESHOLDS IN SOIL SYSTEMS     

Daniel R. Muhs 《自然地理学》2013,34(2):99-110

The threshold concept has been applied with considerable success to the understanding of geomorphic systems. Both intrinsic and extrinsic thresholds can be recognized in soil systems, but intrinsic thresholds have previously been largely ignored. Examples of intrinsic thresholds in soils include minimum levels of sesquioxides for immobilization of organic matter in spodic horizons, leaching of carbonates before clay movement can take place, and certain minimum clay mineral ratios before a pedogenic regime dominated by pedoturbation can occur. Recognition of intrinsic thresholds explains soil instability in the absence of environmental change.  相似文献   

湖南省大通湖河蚬(Corbicula fluminea)现存量及其时空分布     

李德亮  张婷  肖调义  龚望宝  谢骏  李祖军  刘安民 《湖泊科学》2013,25(5):743-748

大通湖是湖南省最大的养殖湖泊.随着河蚬经济价值的提升,大通湖河蚬Corbicula fluminea(Müller,1774)的开发强度逐年增加.为实现河蚬资源的合理开发,本研究在对大通湖河蚬形态特征、现存量及其时空分布调查分析基础上,重点探讨了养殖和软体动物捕捞对其资源的影响.结果显示,壳长大于6 mm河蚬的平均湿重(BW)、壳长(SL)、壳高(SH)和壳宽(SW)分别为1.41±0.03 g、14.82±0.09 mm、13.73±0.09 mm和9.72±0.06 mm,平均相对高度、圆度和凸度分别为0.930±0.001、0.660±0.001和0.710±0.001.河蚬壳长、壳高、壳宽与湿重的关系分别为:lg BW=-3.45+3.00 lg SL、lg BW=-3.23+2.89 lg SH、lg BW=-2.87+2.97 lg SW,表明河蚬为等速生长.2010 2011年,大通湖河蚬平均密度和生物量均较2009年显著增加.2009年,河蚬主要分布于中北部的蜜蜂夹湖区域,2010年开始,几乎遍布整个大通湖,但整体上呈现由东北向西南逐渐递减的趋势,密度和生物量高值均出现在大通湖中部,蜜蜂夹湖、大西湖与尼古湖交界区域.推测养殖过程中物化产品投入的增加是导致大通湖河蚬现存量快速增加的主要原因之一,软体动物捕捞加速了河蚬分布区域的扩展.据此提出了大通湖河蚬合理开发和有效保护的建议.  相似文献   

Spatio-temporal variations of reference crop evapotranspiration and pan evaporation in the West Songnen Plain of China     

Liqiao Liang  Qiang Liu 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(7):1300-1313

Abstract

The spatio-temporal variations of reference crop evapotranspiration (ET_ref) reflect the combined effects of meteorological variables, primarily wind speed, relative humidity, net radiation and air temperature. This study investigated the spatial distribution and temporal trends of ET_ref (calculated by the FAO-56 Penman-Monteith equation), pan evaporation (E_pan) and pan coefficient (K_p) in a 140?×?10³ km² semi-humid to semi-arid area in China. The results show that: (i) although the spatial distributions of ET_ref and E_pan are roughly similar and their spatial correlation is high over the growing season, K_p varied considerably in space due to high humidity in the east of the region and low humidity in the southwest; (ii) the monthly variations of ET_ref and E_pan are similar to that of net radiation and opposite to that of relative humidity, while the monthly variation of K_p is similar to that of relative humidity and opposite to that of wind speed, and the long-term trend is slightly increasing for ET_ref and E_pan, while significantly (10% significance level) increasing for K_p; and (iii) generally, the time series of ET_ref and E_pan from 1951 to 2001 could be divided into three phases due to variations of meteorological variables.

Citation Liang, L.-Q., Li, L.-J. & Liu, Q. (2011) Spatio-temporal variations of reference crop evapotranspiration and pan evaporation in the West Songnen Plain of China. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(7), 1300–1313.  相似文献   

Generation of high spatial and temporal resolution NDVI and its application in crop biomass estimation     

《International Journal of Digital Earth》2013,6(3):203-218

Abstract

While data like HJ-1 CCD images have advantageous spatial characteristics for describing crop properties, the temporal resolution of the data is rather low, which can be easily made worse by cloud contamination. In contrast, although Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) can only achieve a spatial resolution of 250 m in its normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) product, it has a high temporal resolution, covering the Earth up to multiple times per day. To combine the high spatial resolution and high temporal resolution of different data sources, a new method (Spatial and Temporal Adaptive Vegetation index Fusion Model [STAVFM]) for blending NDVI of different spatial and temporal resolutions to produce high spatial–temporal resolution NDVI datasets was developed based on Spatial and Temporal Adaptive Reflectance Fusion Model (STARFM). STAVFM defines a time window according to the temporal variation of crops, takes crop phenophase into consideration and improves the temporal weighting algorithm. The result showed that the new method can combine the temporal information of MODIS NDVI and spatial difference information of HJ-1 CCD NDVI to generate an NDVI dataset with both high spatial and high temporal resolution. An application of the generated NDVI dataset in crop biomass estimation was provided. An average absolute error of 17.2% was achieved. The estimated winter wheat biomass correlated well with observed biomass (R ² of 0.876). We conclude that the new dataset will improve the application of crop biomass estimation by describing the crop biomass accumulation in detail. There is potential to apply the approach in many other studies, including crop production estimation, crop growth monitoring and agricultural ecosystem carbon cycle research, which will contribute to the implementation of Digital Earth by describing land surface processes in detail.  相似文献   

Angstrom公式参数对ET₀的影响及FAO建议值适用性评价   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6       下载免费PDF全文

胡庆芳  杨大文  王银堂  杨汉波 《水科学进展》2010,21(5):644-652

作为计算太阳总辐射(R_s)的主要公式,Angstrom公式参数(a、b)的合理取值是计算参照腾发量(ET₀)的重要前提。针对FAO所提出的a、b建议值(a=0.25、b=0.5)在中国无辐射观测资料地区被大量使用,而其合理性尚未得到系统评价的情况,基于中国104个地面站的观测数据,在逐月时间尺度上,讨论了a、b变化对ET₀的影响,分析了a、b的地区分布规律,评价了FAO建议值所导致的ET₀计算误差,进而阐明了该建议值在中国7个区域的适用性。提出了无辐射资料情况下a、b的地区综合取值方法。主要研究结论是:①参数a、b偏差对ET₀的计算有重要影响,在中国无资料地区采用FAO建议值将导致较大的太阳总辐射(R_s)和ET₀计算误差。②大多数站点,a的率定值较FAO建议值明显偏小,而b的率定值明显偏大。新疆地区和华南地区a、b率定值分布比较集中,而在其它区域比较分散。③FAO建议参数值在东北、西北和新疆3个区域计算ET₀的适用性较好,而在西南和华南两个区域的适用性很差,计算的ET₀偏高较大。④提出的地区综合取值方法,能使R_s和ET₀的计算精度较FAO建议值显著提高。  相似文献   

气候暖干化对西北四省(区)农业种植结构的影响及调整方案   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

邓振镛  张强  赵红岩  王润元  史志娟  方建刚  李林  李艳春 《高原气象》2012,31(2):498-503

利用陕、甘、宁、青四省(区)141个气象站1961-2008年的气象要素值计算和分析得出,暖干化是西北四省(区)现代气候变化的基本特征。年平均气温表现为一致的增温趋势,每10年增温0.27℃,1996年是突变年。年降水量自1961年以来呈持续下降趋势,1986年是转折年,1987-2008年年平均降水量比1961-1986年平均减少20～40mm。以黄河为界,黄河以东降水量呈减少趋势,每10年减少10～40mm;黄河以西呈增多趋势,每10年增加10mm左右,减少的幅度明显高于增加的幅度。进入21世纪,气候暖干化的势头有所减缓。在分析不同区域自然资源特点和气候暖干化及其对农作物影响特征的基础上,运用系统规划理论,采用气候生态相似原理,提出了陕、甘、宁、青四省(区)13个不同地域农业种植结构调整方案。为了加快农业结构调整进程,使农业结构调整方案收到明显的生态、社会和经济效益,提出了四个方面的保障措施。  相似文献   

雷州半岛雷暴发生频次变化特征及其与作物布局调整的相关分析   总被引：6，自引：1，他引：5  

张羽  牛生杰 《热带气象学报》2008,24(6):649-657

为了探究雷州半岛作物布局调整对雷暴发生的可能影响,以达到趋利避害,利用相关分析、11种模型拟合和全变量回归分析等数理统计方法进行了分析和研究。结果表明：雷州半岛年雷暴日数总的变化趋势是明显下降,一年四季均有雷暴天气,午后热雷雨占雷暴天气的大多数,其中5～9月雷暴日数最多,开雷、收雷年际变化差异大。随着稻田的减少,糖蔗、水果种植面积的增加,雷州半岛植被结构得到改善,雷暴天数呈明显减少趋势;蔬菜的种植改变了冬季闲田植被性质,不利于冬初、春末雷暴天气的生成;花生种植面积的调整对雷暴天数变化影响不大。雷州半岛水稻、糖蔗、水果、蔬菜等主要农作物布局调整对雷暴发生可能有明显的影响,主要农作物对雷暴天数可能影响从大到小依次为糖蔗、水稻、蔬菜和水果,农作物布局调整对年开雷、收雷的迟早没有影响。  相似文献